The second triple header of the season will come to an end in Spain this weekend, and it is set to be a race full of intrigue. On one front, the pecking order could change simply due to the difference in track demands to previous venues, but there are also more severe tests on front wing flexibility that will have had the teams at work before arriving in Barcelona.
Lando Norris hit the ground running in 2025 with pole position and victory in the Australian Grand Prix, but then found it difficult to maintain that form.
The McLaren driver was struggling to extract the maximum from his machinery over one lap in Qualifying, and would not secure another pole or win until this past weekend in Monaco. Having seen Oscar Piastri take four wins, and Max Verstappen two, and the pair split the six pole positions between them, Norris was on the back foot slightly in the title fight.
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Monaco was an extremely impressive weekend as he secured pole in the most high-pressured Qualifying session of the year, and then converted that into victory to close the gap to Piastri at the top of the standings to just three points.
But Norris himself says he wants a bigger sample set before being able to claim he’s overcome those challenges from the first part of the season, even if his confidence is growing over one lap. So Barcelona will provide the next opportunity to show the progress, on a very different type of track compared to Monaco.
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The variation in track characteristics can lead to some significant fluctuations in form, and that could be particularly obvious when it comes to Red Bull this weekend.
Verstappen won the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix with what was perhaps his most competitive weekend of the season so far, qualifying on the front row and then taking the lead at the start to pull away for a comfortable victory. That followed his win in Japan and strong pace in Jeddah, two other venues that also boast high-speed corners.
Heading to Monaco, Verstappen was reserved about his chances of repeating that success and it turned out to be a tougher race, with the Dutchman starting and finishing fourth, on a track Red Bull have not been as competitive at in recent years.
But the defending champion knew that was likely to be the case, and after his win in Imola he highlighted Barcelona as a venue where he expected the car to be stronger again. With a number of high-speed corners, the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is a good test of a car’s aerodynamic performance, and there’s every chance Verstappen could provide another strong challenge to the McLarens.
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If there are heightened expectations from Red Bull heading to Spain, there also will be a feeling from Mercedes that their weekend has to be better than they one they just endured in Monaco.
A disastrous Qualifying saw both cars drop out in the final two spots of Q2, and from there they were always likely to find it tough to try and score points. Held back by the Racing Bulls and Williams tactics, George Russell cut the chicane to pass Alex Albon, took a drive-through penalty, and crossed the line in 11th place.
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Mercedes still hold onto second place in the Teams’ Championship, but only by four points from Red Bull, and five from Ferrari, as the battle tightened considerably after Toto Wolff’s team failed to score.
Smooth, high-speed circuits were a strength for Mercedes last year, but higher temperatures were a source of weakness, and the current forecast is for a warm weekend in Spain, so they will not face an easy task trying to return to the fight for podiums.
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There are caveats to all of the above, though, as the Spanish Grand Prix weekend has long been earmarked as a potential turning point in the season by some teams.
That’s because the FIA is bringing in more strict demands when it comes to front wing flexibility tests, increasing the load that the wings will have to be able to withstand. The changes were announced at the end of January, but the introduction of the tougher tests was delayed until Spain to allow teams time to adjust without having to completely scrap the wings they were due to start the new season with.
The deflection allowance under a static load will be reduced from 15mm to 10mm, and Williams Team Principal James Vowles said earlier this season that he expects it to have a “profound effect” on some teams, with Ferrari’s Fred Vasseur describing it as being a potential “reset” or “gamechanger” in terms of the competitive picture.
Other teams are downplaying the impact the change is likely to have, though, even if the majority are expected to have to introduce updated wings as a result. We’ll find out which school of thought is right this weekend.
Changes to front wing flexibility tests will come into effect for the Spanish Grand Prix weekend
So we already know there are likely to be a number of front wings listed in the submissions of new components sent to the FIA for the Spanish Grand Prix, but could there be further developments elsewhere on the cars?
Barcelona was traditionally the first race of the European season, and as a venue where pre-season testing used to take place it provided a good benchmark to understand the impact of major upgrade packages.
The current schedule has changed the picture on that front a little bit, with teams having already raced in Europe – logistically easier to bring new parts due to the vicinity to their factories – for the past two weeks, and some relatively significant upgrades introduced in Imola at the start of the triple header.
But Spain is still a track where you need good aerodynamic performance and efficiency, and we are only reaching the end of the first third of the 2025 season, so any new parts can still have a major impact on the final outcome of the championship.
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